Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner – Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction

As Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock A landmark 2005 study showed that even experts’ predictions can be slightly more accurate than chance. Important nonetheless and underreported conclusion of This study showed that some experts have foresight. Format File: [1 Epub, 1 Mobi] File size: 4.72 MB

Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner – Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER – NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.”–Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Anyone would benefit by seeing further into future whether they are buying stocks, crafting policy or launching a product. Or simply planning for the week. People can be bad forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock A landmark 2005 study showed that even experts’ predictions can be slightly more accurate than chance. Important nonetheless and underreported conclusion of This study showed that some experts have real foresight. and Tetlock The past decade has been spent trying to find out why. Why are some people so talented? Is it possible to teach this talent? This is how you can learn. Superforecasting, Tetlock and As coauthor Dan Gardner A masterwork in prediction drawing on decades of experience of Research and The results of Massive, government-funded-Tournament for funded forecasting The The Good Judgment project involves many. of Many thousands of People of ordinary means, such as a Brooklyn filmmaker or a retired piper. and A former ballroom dancer, who set out to predict global events. Some of The volunteers have been amazing. They have beaten competitors and other benchmarks. and prediction markets. They have even beat collective judgment of Intelligence analysts who have access to classified data. They are “superforecasters.” This is a groundbreaking article. and Accessible Tetlock and Gardner Show us what we can learn from this elite group. Stories woven together of Forecasting success (the raid on Osama Bin Laden’s compound). and Failures in the Bay of Pigs) and Interviews with a variety of people of High-They are all decision-makers at the highest levels, from Robert Rubin to David Petraeus. They show that forecasting is possible without using complex computers or other arcane methods. It requires gathering evidence from many sources. of Sources, Thinking probabilistically, Working in Teams, Keeping Score and Accepting error and You can change your mind. Superforecasting This is the first proven method of improving our ability to predict the future. It can be used in any industry, business, finance, politics or everyday life.and This is the modern classic.

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